A few hands after the one I want to share today went down like this:
A player raises to $15 pre-flop and gets two callers.
The flop comes all clubs.
The first player checks and the second player bets the pot.
The original raiser comes over the top another $100.
The first player folds and the second player calls.
The turn pairs the board.
There is a $100 bet.
The original raiser two-bets and the bettor calls.
The river is a queen.
Both players end up all-in.
The first bettor flopped a flush.
The original raiser shows pocket queens for a runner-runner full house.
This donkey play happens more often than not where a player cannot lay down a big pair and outlucks the better hand on the flop.
Back up a few hands to one that I am in and not watching like the one described above.
I limped in with 5-6 clubs. A player to my left makes it $15 to go.
A calling station calls and the action folds around to me. I call.
The flop comes 10-8-2. All clubs.
The calling station checks.
I bet the pot hoping to take it down right now.
The original raiser to my left comes over the top for another $100.
The calling station folds.
I am faced with a tough decision, so I talk it through with the player hoping to get a read.
Here is what went down:
I tell the table, “Sorry guys, I need a minute. I need to think this through.”
The reason I am polite with the table is I don’t want someone calling the clock on me while I think out the hand.
Then, I look at the player and tell him straight up, “I flopped a flush. I don’t think you have a flush or you would not drive out the action. Why would you raise me with a flush? Besides, the odds of two players flopping a flush are so remote, you are going to have a tough time selling me that you have a flush too. But you just committed over a third of your stack on this hand.”
He is quiet.
I continue, “Do you have a set? I can beat a set. But you have two draws at pairing the board for a full house. That means you are a 28% favorite to hit it on the turn and 22% or so on the river.”
No response.
“You don’t have a set. I think you have a big pocket pair. Queens? If you have the queen of clubs, you are about 28% to win the hand on the turn and 14% on the river. If you don’t have the club, you have to hit runner-runner for a boat.”
Nothing.
“I cannot call. I either need to fold or come over the top and put you all-in. It is only about 25% of my stack to put you all-in.”
Still nothing.
“I think I have you crushed right now. You are way behind and I am getting two-to-one on my money as a three-to-one favorite to win the hand.”
Absolutely nothing.
I ask myself if my 6-high flush is a $350 hand. My hand is the best it will ever be right now. It can only get worse on fourth and fifth streets.
He potentially has 14 outs to my no outs.
If I just call and another club comes on the turn, what then? Does he it a better flush and I flush away $100?
If I just call and the board pairs on the turn, then he has 10 outs to my no outs to hit a full house and I hit the poor house.
“If I fold, will you show?”
He says “sure”.
I tell him I don’t want him sucking out.
I show him the flush, and he shows me two red queens.
I apologize to the table again for taking so much time and I congratulate the player on outplaying me.
He says, “I did not outplay you. Your read was spot-on and I just could not lay down queens.”
I agonized over that hand for hours. I still don’t know if I made the right decision or not.
When the runner-runner suckout happened a few hands later with the same flop scenario, Mr. Queens and I just looked at each other and smiled.
Tags: flush, outluck, pocket queens, tough decisions
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