Rounders, Inc.

A good friend of mine emailed me information on a hand he was in and asked how I would have played it.

He is a very solid player and could easily promote himself to the Rounder category of card player. (He does not need the money and plays mostly for fun)

Here is what he wrote:

I have my $300 buy-in in front of me. The table is wild with bluffs and big bets.

The guy to my right bets $10 preflop and I CORRECTLY put him on A-K.

I have 7-4 suited and there are 5 players to the flop.

The flop is K-7-4 rainbow.

The A-K bets $20 into a $50 pot.

I’m next to act and raise to $80 to get rid of everybody else.

Everyone folds except the original bettor. He re-raises me $100.

I do not put him on K-K for top set. He would have bet harder preflop with that hand. I go back to my original read of A-K.

I push all in.

He calls and shows A-K and sighs when he sees my two pair.

The turn is a deuce.

He hits an Ace on the river.

I read everything right, got all my money in being a 4-to-1 favorite and lost.

How would you have played it?

In short, you got unlucky.

That said, here are my thoughts:

The wild nature of the table was not a factor here. You were dealing with a below average player, at best, that was obsessed with A-K.

Why do I say that? With your strong table image and you playing back at me on the flop, I would have given you credit for at least two pair or a set.

You are not the K-7 or K-4 kind of guy. So, I would have played it safe and put you on a set of 4s or set of 7s. My A-K would have been in the muck.

I would have played it the same. You got unlucky.

But, I probably would not have played 7-4 suited in early position (or any position) with a wild table like that.

If I was feeling frisky AND was playing with their money and not my original buy-in, I may have played the hand.

The problem with having suited connectors with one or two in the gut is they are not profitable hands over the long run. With two in the gut, you can hit only one nut straight.

Compare that to a J-10 where you can hit five straights and four of them are the nuts.

When I am at a table with bad players, the range of hands I normally play gets reduced by 67%.

If the table of bad players is a wild one, I reduce it again by 67%.

This translates into playing 8-8 or better and J-10 suited or better from late position.

I cannot recall the last time my bottom two pair held up when someone flopped top pair. Bottom two is a dangerous hand. If the board pairs or they hit their other hole card, it all over baby.

Until recently, I took refuge with the fact that I put the money in good and could only be beat with pure luck.

How many times does one have to get unlucky with less than premium hands against bad players?

That experience forced me to tighten up my game.

And even then, luck is a factor.

Just like when I was at a wild table of bad players and got it in good on the flop with A-A and got beat by a player under the gun that called $100 preflop in a $1-$2 game with J-8 offsuit to protect their $10 straddle.

Holding pocket tens can be a tough hand to play.

Here are two hands I was in the other night. Each time I had 9-9 up against inexperienced players, each with 10-10.

In the first hand, I am out of position, but raise big to represent something like Q-Q or J-J.

I get one caller pre-flop. I put him on a bigger pair than me or some kind of Ace.

The flop comes J-7-2 rainbow.

“I am all-in,” I declare.

“Why the push?” he asks.

“Because I do not want you drawing out on me for a bigger set,” I reply.

My opponent puts me on a set of Jacks and folds. He shows 10-10 like it was some kind of monster laydown.

A player at the table laughs and says, “Sammy probably just had pocket nines,”

“Hold it!” my opponent says, “Did you have nines?”

With his cards safely in the muck and the pot pushed to me, I show nines.

“The game is hold EM not hold IT,” I say with a smile.

He goes on tilt.

Hand number 2.

A player to my immediate right raises pre-flop.

The right play for me was call or fold. Most of the time, anyways.

To help tell the story of “I have K-K or A-K”, I need to re-raise before the flop.

Plus, I have position on this player.

He calls.

The flop comes K-7-4 rainbow.

My opponent does not seem to be bothered by the King. He bets.

I call.

As always, I studied my opponent as the turn card came out. I could tell he did not like it.

Without looking at the board, I bet half the pot.

My opponent folds and shows 10-10.

No speech. No speculation.

I fold the nines and see that an Ace hit the turn.

In both cases, my opponents made the right decision; the safe decision.

A stronger player with the tens may have read my play as making a play.

Then again, maybe not.

I like to represent big hands by betting like I got it. Unless you are up against a weak player, you can bet someone off K-K if an Ace hits or get them to fold Q-Q if a King hits the flop.

The other day, I get 10-10 under the gun and make it $22 to go.

This bet in most low limit games represents A-A or K-K.

The next player calls and the button calls. Everyone else folds.

The flop comes 10c-6c-2d.

I put the first caller on a big pair. I am not so sure about the button. He is an older gentleman. Most older folks don’t put the money in on draws.

I bet $40 hoping to take it down.

The next player goes all-in for another $100.

The button studies me. I want him to think I am folding so he calls. I give him a look of disappointment and pull my card protector chip off my cards.

I bet hard pre-flop to represent strength. Now, I want to represent weakness.

He goes all-in for about $150.

“Let’s see. You have Queens or Jacks. (pointing to first player) And you have a flush draw? (pointing to button) Really? You have a flush draw?” I say.

I call and show top set.

The first player shows Q-Q and the button shows a flush draw.

Neither player improved and I took it down.

Whoever said that poker is the only sport without a handicap was wrong.

Dead wrong.

I crushed a cash game yesterday. With all the easy money gone, I decided to play a small tournament.

My rationale? I was freerolling from the cash game. In hindsight, I pissed away 80 bucks.

I am at a table with several strong players, several weak players, and one big donkey.

What do I look for when hunting donkeys? Ones that play every pot at any cost and win with sheer luck.

These players never raise. They have three tools: call, call, and call.

I was playing perfectly. Right hands, right position, right reads.

Flash forward two hours into the tournament.

I am sitting on an above average chip stack. Exactly where I want to be.

The players at my end of the table are talking about The Donkey and how he has played every hand and wins on the river.

I make a comment about having to go all-in against him to push him off a marginal hand. I think to myself that this play may not be enough.

A few minutes later, I get the chance to put this into action.

I get K-Q in late position and raise.

Normally, I would limp in, but I wanted to build a pot then take it down on the flop if I hit a pair or better.

So, I raise 10X the big blind.

The Donkey is in early position and he is my only customer.

Now, keep in mind that I have been building a table image so far by showing every uncalled winning hand. I have shown A-A, K-K, a set of 10s, and 8-8. I have also  been calling out other player’s hands.

In fact, have not lost a hand yet.

All for naught.

The flop comes K-10-7 rainbow.

My customer checks.

I feel he is weak. If I go slow, he could draw out on me.

I decide to play it fast and hope he folds.

“I am all-in,” I declare.

He pauses.

This call is for half his stack.

If he folds, it will be his first fold of the day.

He counts out the chips.

“You are way behind here. You are a 4-to-1 dog right now and are getting only 1 1/2-to-1 to call,” I tell him.

“I got a hand,” he says.

“You do. You have the losing hand.”

“How the fuck do you know what I got?” he asks.

“The problem here is you don’t know what I got. At best, you have bottom pair. You need to get real lucky to win this hand.”

He throws the chips in.

I show top pair.

He gets pissed and slams his cards down.

Sure enough, he has 9-7 off.

The turn is a 4.

One card away from either a double up or a bust out.

The river? A fucking 9.

The worst feeling in the world is playing it right, putting it in good, and getting beat by pure luck.

Did he get lucky or did I get unlucky?

I am not sure, but I know this: bad players seem to have an abundance of good luck.

In retrospect, I should have just checked it down. If he bets, that would tell me he hit two pair or better.

How someone can call off half their stack on bottom pair is beyond my ability to rationalize.

But then again, these kinds of players play poker like the slot machines: put the money in, pull the lever, and hope for the best.

I am pleased to announce my retirement / hiatus is over. While my two tournaments yesterday were complete disasters (13 consecutive tournaments where I was eliminated by runner-runner longshots), my two cash game sessions were classic Sammy Wynn.

My reads in the first cash game session were 100% accurate. I felt like a circus act.

A young gun in the first session says, “Hey mister. Your reads seem to be right on. What did he  (points to another player) have on that last hand?”

I was back in the game.

After 12 hours of poker, my reads in the second session were 80% on at best. During the second cash session, my good friend Steven was at the table. He asked me about how I read and such.

I do not know where it comes from … instinct I guess. But I do try to narrow down the player to a range of hands based on their face and hand tells, along with their betting patterns.

Every session comes down to a couple / few key hands … here is how I read these key hands last night:

Hand #1:

I am in late position with K-8 clubs. Yeah, the hand sucks - I rarely play trash hands like this. But, I had position on someone I was determined to felt.

The person I wanted to felt raised from early position and I called. Action folded around to the button. The button was a new player and he called.

I put the raiser on a small / medium pair pre-flop.

The flop comes K-9-8 rainbow.

The original raiser bets small. It feels like he either missed the flop or was underplaying a set. So, I play it safe and call with two pair.

The button also calls. I put the button on some kind of King.

The turn is another King.

The original raiser checks. I bet my Kings full. The button calls.

The raiser four bets me. I am now concerned about K-9 or 9-9. I rule out K-9 since I put the button on a King. Pocket 9s are possible, but not likely since he probably would have bet the flop harder. It is tough to put him on 8-8 since one is on the board and I have one in the pocket.

I re-raise him all-in. My opponent took a good minute to think it through before he calls.

The button folded.

“I have a boat,” he says. “You have Kings full don’t you.”

I knew right then he had 8-8.

“You are drawing dead,” I tell him.

He shows 8-8.

The read here was a narrowing process. Again, this was a tough read because of the case cards.

As for the betting, it is a coin toss for me to just call the raise or re-raise. If my read was accurate for the button player, I don’t want him to catch an Ace or Queen - whatever he had to go with his King to draw out to a better full house on the river. As for the raiser, my thinking is if the player is in a betting mood, get all their chips on that street. If a scare card comes on the next street, it could kill the action.

Hand #2

I have 6-6 on the button.

A player in the big blind bets hard. The action folds to me and I call. Why call a big bet with a small pair? I knew I could outplay my opponent after the flop.

I put him on K-K, Q-Q, or J-J. He was nervous as hell pre-flop. I knew he had a big hand that he was afraid was going to get cracked. There was no way he was trying to buy a small pot pre-flop. That play was not in his arsenal.

The flop is 6-5-4. Top set!

My opponent bets the pot.

I call.

The turn is a 7.

I was not thrilled with the 7. No doubt, my opponent had a pocket pair, but he bet too hard pre-flop to have 8-8 for a straight.

My opponent checks.

I bet half the pot.

He stalls. My opponent never looked at me. He stared at the board for a good minute or so.

I instantly rule out 8-8.

“You have Queens? Maybe Kings,” I say.

He stares at the board.

“You are the strong silent type, huh?” I say laughing.

At this point, I don’t want a nervous player drawing out to a set on the river. Even though it is a 5%er, I don’t want a bad beat with a big pot.

“Sir, I flopped top set and will show either way. I think you have K-K or Q-Q.”

He folds and I show. Sure enough, shows Kings before mucking the hand.

“I called because I had position and got lucky,” I tell him.

He replies with, “You saved me alot of money. I believed you when you said you had a set. You have not lost a hand yet.”

“Yeah, well, you should have been here last week.”

Hand #3

I am in the big blind with K-Q hearts. A player in late position raises. I put him on some kind of big Ace.

The action folds to me and I call. We are heads up.

As always, I study my opponent as the cards are coming out.

His facial expression told me he liked the flop.

I then glance down and see Jh-9h-7s.

I have an open-ended straight draw, flush draw, and a straight flush draw.

Before I act, I crunch the odds in my head.

Worst case scenario is my opponent flopped a set of Jacks. With the draws I have, there are 8 hearts (the 7h is no good because it pairs the board to give my opponent a full house), 3 Aces, and 3 tens I can catch to make my hand.

I am a slight favorite to win the hand with 14 outs x 4 = 56% going to the turn.

Best case scenario is my opponent has a hand like A-J. This takes away one of my Aces, but gives me 3 Kings and 3 Queens to beat him. That is 19 outs x 4 = 76% to win the hand.

My opponent bets half the pot. I am getting 3-to-1 on my money to call. Easy decision.

I call and study my opponent again.

He does this grimacing eye-roll frown thing when the turn card hit the board.

It was a King. The King of Spades.

I now put my opponent on either A-J or J-10.

I rule out K-J because of how he reacted to the turn. Keep in mind, that if I was watching fifth street hit, I would have missed this critical tell that lasted a fraction of a second.

I also rule out Q-J because I was holding a Queen. It is possible, but not likely.

My opponent is beat. He is done betting, so I bet for him.

He calls. It felt like he was now chasing trips or two pair going to the river.

I know if I can dodge a Jack or an Ace, my Kings are good.

The river is 6s, putting a flush out there.

I knew he was not on a flush draw from his reaction to the river card. I also knew he was done with the hand. So, I checked.

Why not bet? I wanted to force a showdown to see if my read was accurate or not.

Some players pay for information. In this case, the information was free.

He checked behind and shows A-J.

I show K-Q and take the pot down.

That player racked up and moved to the Omaha game.

Two more players left, so Steven and I racked up as well.

For the first time in two weeks, the game broke instead of me getting broke from bad beats and miracle suckouts.

It is nice to come out the other side of running bad.

As we were leaving, Steven says to me, “That was so cool. They were afraid of you. And did you notice they would not play if we were both in the hand?”

Yeah, I noticed. It was a great feeling. The profit. The respect. That is what I play for.

Well, that sucked.

I played a tournament yesterday.

My table had a couple of reasonably strong players and 7 or so weak amateurs.

By the first break, I like to be sitting on the chip average or so.

I did not have a playable hand for the first 90 minutes.

About two minutes before the break, I decide to make a move.

A player in early position min-raises to $800.

Everyone folds.

I am on the button with 9-8 hearts and call.

The flop comes 9-8-6 rainbow.

As always, I studied my opponent as the flop came out.

He nervously checked.

I then look at the flop and see I have top two.

I bet half the pot: $1000.

My opponent nervously calls.

I put him on A-K or A-Q.

Keep in mind, that there are two straights on board, a possible set, and possible two pair with suited connectors.

I study my opponent as the turn card comes out.

He nervously checks again.

It is an Ace. I bet half the pot again.

My opponent thinks about it a while and decides to put me all-in.

I insta-call: My chips were in the middle before his hit the felt.

He sees top two and shakes his head.

Of course, he has A-K and is kicking himself for overplaying the hand.

Going to the river, he needs any Ace, King, or 6 to beat me. At best, he has 8 outs.

Can he pull off the runner-runner miracle?

Can he go from a 5-to-1 dog to a winner and knock me out?

The way I have been running, he was a shoo-in to win.

The river card was a 6.

He did it! Pulled off a runner-runner miracle.

Like I calmly told the table before I left, I can’t remember the last time I put it in bad. I also can’t remember the last time I put it in good and did not get hit with a 989-to-1 runner runner longshot.

The worst feeling in poker is getting beat by a bad player that gets rewarded for bad play by catching the miracle cards.

I have never run this bad before … I don’t know what is going on.

I do know two things: One, I played it right. Two, getting hit with runner-runner again sucked.

I will be back in tournament action today and cash games later this week … I think.

Here is a story of how I outplayed a young gun in a cash game several weeks ago:

I am in seat 9. Seats 8 and 10 were open.

This young gun sits down in seat 10, presumably so he can raise me.

I am in the big blind with K-K. He raises under the gun with a hand like A-Q or A-J.

The flop comes K-Q-7 rainbow.

I check call my set all the way to the river.

His chips are gone, and I take it down.

The young gun reloads and moves to seat 8.

“You moved to check raise me now?” I ask him.

He grins.

He bets his first hand hard. I put him on nothing, but call with K-Q off.

The flop comes A-J-9 off.

He bets the flop hard, trying to represent an Ace.

“I can beat an Ace,” I say. And I call.

The turn is a deuce.

He bets hard again.

Once again, I tell him I can beat an Ace. And I call.

The river is another blank.

The young gun pauses. Then checks.

My gut says he has rags.

“I have the winning hand,” I tell him. “But, if you show me A-K or A-Q, I will fold.”

Nothing. So, I wait.

He turns over 8 high.

I turn over King high and take the pot down.

“I thought you could beat an Ace?” He asks.

“I could. The part I left out was I needed a 10 first.”

The young gun was just about felted. Again.

Instead of another seat change, he opted for a table change.

Last week, I wrote a post saying I was done with poker.

Since then, I have had fellow players, friends, and dealers call and email me asking what the hell is going on.

Perhaps my post jumped the gun a bit. I don’t know.

I have the gift of accurately reading players’ hands blind and making the right decision.

Blessings are curses sometimes.

I took a break from cash after I flopped Queens full of 9s (I had Q-Q) and got called pre-flop and at every street by someone with K-9 off. Well, the dog hand caught the case 9 on the river for quads. So, I went to tournaments for a week.

I played three tournaments a day for a week. During that time, I hit the final table on 90%.

Not a single mistake - every read was correct and every decision to either play a hand or not play a hand was correct.

The hand that hurt the most and drove the decision to quit?

Actually, it was two hands.

The first, I have A-K on the button.

Some donk in middle position pushes all his chips in.

If I call and lose, it is 1/3 my stack.

If I call and win, I am the dominant chip leader.

Action folds to me.

I scan the players behind me and decide they can’t call.

So what does donk have?

I talk to him.

“You must have a big hand.”

Nothing.

“I think you have a hand like A-J or A-Q and don’t know how to play it after the flop.”

He looks up at me.

I call.

He shows A-J.

The flop comes K-8-7 rainbow.

Even though I flop top pair top kicker, I am not thrilled to see the 8-7.

Turn card is 10.

I cringe.

River card is the miracle 9 for a straight.

Two hands later, the donk donked off the double-up.

I grind it all back and find myself at the final table with players that are considered by many to be weak. I agreed. It was soft as butter.

I am under the gun with J-10 hearts.

In retrospect, I should have folded and waited for a better spot.

Maybe I should have raised, but I know any weak Ace still would have called.

Well, 6 players are in this pot.

The flop comes 8d-9h-Qh.

I flopped the nut straight with an open-ended straight flush draw.

I want to push out the flush draws and take down a decent pot.

The blinds check to me.

“All-in”, I declare.

Everyone folds around to the big blind.

He pauses.

“I think I am beat”, he says.

“I am on a draw”, I tell him.

“I don’t think so. Sammy Wynn does not put his chips in on a draw. That much I know. But I don’t know what you have”, he responds.

“Open-ended straight flush draw”, I say.

I don’t think he understood what that meant because he called me.

What it meant was 4 of his theoretical 9 outs were gone: The two hearts I had plus the two hearts to make the straight flush.

Five outs in theory makes him a 5-to-1 dog to the turn and 10-to-1 dog to the river while getting about 2-to-1 on his money. On the bubble.

Why risk it?

As it turns out, another player folded hearts.

There were three hearts left in the deck for this player to win.

He is a 9-to-1 dog on the turn and 20-to-1 on the river.

Cinch hand for me, huh?

Fuck no.

The dealer brought hearts on both the turn and river. Two of the three hearts left in the deck that did not give me the straight flush.

I was out.

As for this player?

He was out during the next round.

I think he used up his luck in the hand with me.

So, you all now have an appreciation for my frustration.

I will be back at the table soon.

Very soon.

Get ready to deal me in.

Remember the Bob Seger song Mary Lou?

It reminds me of how people play pocket Queens wrong. It goes something like this:

I’m gonna tell you a story ’bout Mary Lou
You know the kind of woman make a fool of you
She make a young man itch
She man an old man faint
The way she took my money was a crying shame
Mary Lou she took my watch and chain
Mary Lou she took my diamond ring
Mary Lou she took the keys to my Cadillac car
Jumped in my kitty and drove off far

I watched one player go broke with Queens last night.

Twice.

Another player raises to $12 in early position and gets seven callers. Including me.

The flop comes 10d-8h-7h.

There is a potential straight on board and a flush draw.

Any player with a straight draw and flush draw has at least 13 outs to make any pocket pair a 40% dog.

This player is first to act and bets $25 into a $100 pot.

She gave anyone on a draw or anyone that is a 4-to-1 dog at least 5-to-1 on their money.

Everyone folds around to me.

I call.

The turn is 2s.

My opponent bets out $50.

“You have pocket Kings or Queens. Feels like Queens. I raise you all-in for another $100,” I say.

She stares me down.

“You have Queens, right?”

“I can’t get away from this hand,” she says.

“Let me help you,” I say.

I show 9h.

She stares at the board. Stares at my 9. Then calls.

I admit I was trying to get her to lay the hand down.

I was on a draw, but confident I would win the hand.

Now, when there is a straight and flush draw on board AND someone calls your hand, how could you call?

I mean, if someone ever called my hand (which still has not happened yet) AND they are playing back at me, I would fold!

Not this lady. She could not get away from a lousy pair.

Truth be told, I needed any 6, 9, 10, Jack, or heart to make my hand. That is 20 outs.

The river? Jack baby.

I turn over the Ten and say “Straight.”

Had she bet $100 or even $50 on the flop, I go away. Probably.

Instead of winning a small pot, she lost a big one.

I am amazed at how people mis-play these hands.

They underplay them at the start then overplay them when a completed hand, like a straight or flush, hits the board.

Big Bob was right. The ladies are trouble, unless they are treated right.

I tried an experiment yesterday to confirm what I already know.

What the hell, I was bored.

Brunson’s Super System says you cannot put a play on a weak player. You must showdown the best hand.

This, I already know from playing with weak players.

Sometimes, I need validation.

I am in a hand with a guy that raises to $20 pre-flop.

I call.

A player behind makes it $40 to go.

The original raiser and I both call.

The flop is As-Ks-9h.

The original raiser checks.

I bet hoping to represent an Ace or a King.

Both players call.

The turn is a Queen. The Queen of spades.

The original raiser gets excited and bets the pot.

Ok, there is a straight, a flush, and a royal flush on board.

I re-raise him all-in.

The player behind folds J-J.

The original raiser looks confused.

“You have a set of Queens, huh?”

“Yeah. I don’t think I can get away from this hand.”

I started laughing.

“Dude, there is a straight, flush, and royal flush on board. What is there to think about?”

He calls.

The river is a blank.

He shows me the Q-Q.

I laughed again and threw away my hand: J-2.

“I thought you had a straight or a flush. Whew! I thought I was beat,” this guy says.

“Then why did you call?”

Typical.