I was in a $1 - $2 - $100 spread limit Texas Hold’Em game the other night. Table 9, seat 9. A friend of mine was at table 5.
One of my key strengths is my ability to read other players’ hands blind. My accuracy is well over 90%. This has made me and saved me a boatload of money at the poker table.
There was a big hand at my table and a player whispered to me what these players had. I said, “No. Monica is holding A-K for top two pair and this other player has a club flush.”
When the cards were turned over, my read was spot on.
The table looks at me and another player said, “Sammy, you should play poker.”
I replied with, “I was looking for a poker game but could not find one. So, I ended up here.”
My sarcasm is justified on my experience that players at this level simply cannot play poker.
They cannot read other players’ hands. They cannot calculate pot or implied odds.
The reality is most players at this level play their own hand against the board and hope to get lucky.
Case in point: Let me describe a hand my friend was in that illustrates both bad play and the luck factor.
Everyone limps in and the action is on the small blind.
Let’s say the small blind is a below average player and limps in.
You are in the big blind and have A-K. You are a solid player and subscribe to the Doyle Brunson principle that A-K is a raising hand in the A-A and K-K category.
You raise to $40. Keep in mind that at this level, a raise to $20 pre-flop with A-A is par.
Everyone folds to the button.
The button is a calling station and plays any Ace. He calls.
The small blind now re-raises to $80.
What the fuck?
If the small blind had a big pair, say A-A, K-K, or maybe Q-Q, wouldn’t he have raised and not limped in?
Did the small blind have a read on the big blind that a raise was coming? Surely, the small blind would not want to risk 10 way action with a big hand.
In my opinion, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, and A-K are only good for heads-up action. Further, A-K is only good for heads-up action against a smaller pair.
What now? You know the button is going to call.
We are in the danger zone. A marginal hand, three-way action, and out of position because we have to act second with a calling station behind to “price-in” the small blind.
The flop comes A-K-10 rainbow.
Top two with $250 or so in the pot.
The small blind checks.
The question is this: Is top two pair any good against the small blind?
The small blind could have re-raised pre-flop with A-A, K-K, or 10-10.
There is a straight out there. Does he have a suited Q-J for the nuts?
Does he have Q-Q for a gutshot straight?
Why would the small blind check the flop after re-raising pre-flop?
Why no standard continuation bet?
Is he setting up a check raise knowing the big blind will bet anyway?
This has become a complex hand because of the texture of the board and the odd play of the small blind.
Check. Bet. Or fold.
The big blind bets $100.
The button raises to $200.
What?
The calling station is raising the original raiser?
Does the button have a straight or a set of 10s?
The small blind calls.
The turn card is a 4.
The small blind now bets all-in.
The big blind and button both call.
Everyone is pretty much all-in to the river.
Fifth street is a 10.
Now, there is a potential full house and potential quads on board, in addition to the straight or sets that could have been flopped.
I would have had a tough time calling the turn bet with A-K. I would have put one player on a straight and the other on a set of 10s or set of 4s.
I would have also been wrong.
I also would have been beat.
The small blind was holding A-10 offsuit.
Ace fucking 10. He raised to $80 pre-flop with a hand that is mathematically slightly better than 7-2.
He was a 12-to-1 underdog going to the turn and a 19-to-1 underdog going to the river to catch a 10 to beat A-K.
This donkey was getting somewhere between two and four-to-one on his money and got lucky on a longshot.
It gets better: the button had A-4 offsuit.
Ace four? The only way this guy could have won the hand is with runner-runner 4s. That is a 989-to-1 longshot. I am fairly certain he was not getting 989-to-one on his money to stay in the hand.
This fucker RAISED on the flop with an ace and no kicker with a STRAIGHT onboard.
Frankly, neither the A-10 or A-4 had any business in the hand after the flop. Aces are hard to get away from for most people. The right move for them was to fold.
Here is why: The big blind was the original raiser. I would have given him respect for A-A, K-K, A-K, or maybe Q-J suited.
Any of those hands had A-10 and A-4 beat.
The small blind played it wrong and got lucky.
The button played like a calling station. How he could think HIS two pair was good escapes me. But that is the kind of action I am looking for in this game.
My friend put the money in good. If the only way they can beat you is to get lucky, then take comfort knowing that luck runs out.
