Rounders, Inc.

Remember the Bob Seger song Mary Lou?

It reminds me of how people play pocket Queens wrong. It goes something like this:

I’m gonna tell you a story ’bout Mary Lou
You know the kind of woman make a fool of you
She make a young man itch
She man an old man faint
The way she took my money was a crying shame
Mary Lou she took my watch and chain
Mary Lou she took my diamond ring
Mary Lou she took the keys to my Cadillac car
Jumped in my kitty and drove off far

I watched one player go broke with Queens last night.

Twice.

Another player raises to $12 in early position and gets seven callers. Including me.

The flop comes 10d-8h-7h.

There is a potential straight on board and a flush draw.

Any player with a straight draw and flush draw has at least 13 outs to make any pocket pair a 40% dog.

This player is first to act and bets $25 into a $100 pot.

She gave anyone on a draw or anyone that is a 4-to-1 dog at least 5-to-1 on their money.

Everyone folds around to me.

I call.

The turn is 2s.

My opponent bets out $50.

“You have pocket Kings or Queens. Feels like Queens. I raise you all-in for another $100,” I say.

She stares me down.

“You have Queens, right?”

“I can’t get away from this hand,” she says.

“Let me help you,” I say.

I show 9h.

She stares at the board. Stares at my 9. Then calls.

I admit I was trying to get her to lay the hand down.

I was on a draw, but confident I would win the hand.

Now, when there is a straight and flush draw on board AND someone calls your hand, how could you call?

I mean, if someone ever called my hand (which still has not happened yet) AND they are playing back at me, I would fold!

Not this lady. She could not get away from a lousy pair.

Truth be told, I needed any 6, 9, 10, Jack, or heart to make my hand. That is 20 outs.

The river? Jack baby.

I turn over the Ten and say “Straight.”

Had she bet $100 or even $50 on the flop, I go away. Probably.

Instead of winning a small pot, she lost a big one.

I am amazed at how people mis-play these hands.

They underplay them at the start then overplay them when a completed hand, like a straight or flush, hits the board.

Big Bob was right. The ladies are trouble, unless they are treated right.

Last night was a strange night at the poker table.

For starters, I could not see my hole cards while wearing my new prescription Oakley Whisker sunglasses.

I must have folded a dozen hands - rags - that flopped the nuts.

Everytime I got a nice pocket pair, either everyone folded to my pre-flop bet or I was forced to chop in the small or big blind.

My reads were totally off - which is highly unusual since I am reliably spot-on.

In fact, I lost a dinner bet due to my terrible reads. This is the first side bet I have lost in 20 years.

I folded K-2. A young lady sitting next to me said she had pocket Kings.

To which I reply, “There is no way you had pocket Kings.”

She bet me dinner.

And I lost.

In my sunken emotional state over bad reads and a couple bad beats, I forgot that they load up FOUR Kings in a deck.

I made just enough money for 8 hours to fund the blinds and stay even.

The only real hand I won was three way action at the end of the night.

I raise to $20 pre-flop and get five callers.

At this point, I am convinced they can see my Q-Q reflected in my shades.

Long story short, I get all the chips in the middle.

Three players fold.

One flops a set of 10s.

One turns a set of Jacks.

I got lucky and rivered a set.

Thankfully, a player with A-K folded on the flop.

It took 8 hours to triple up.

Now, I have the bankroll to fund the dinner bet marker.

A few hands after the one I want to share today went down like this:

A player raises to $15 pre-flop and gets two callers.

The flop comes all clubs.

The first player checks and the second player bets the pot.

The original raiser comes over the top another $100.

The first player folds and the second player calls.

The turn pairs the board.

There is a $100 bet.

The original raiser two-bets and the bettor calls.

The river is a queen.

Both players end up all-in.

The first bettor flopped a flush.

The original raiser shows pocket queens for a runner-runner full house.

This donkey play happens more often than not where a player cannot lay down a big pair and outlucks the better hand on the flop.

Back up a few hands to one that I am in and not watching like the one described above.

I limped in with 5-6 clubs. A player to my left makes it $15 to go.

A calling station calls and the action folds around to me. I call.

The flop comes 10-8-2. All clubs.

The calling station checks.

I bet the pot hoping to take it down right now.

The original raiser to my left comes over the top for another $100.

The calling station folds.

I am faced with a tough decision, so I talk it through with the player hoping to get a read.

Here is what went down:

I tell the table, “Sorry guys, I need a minute. I need to think this through.”

The reason I am polite with the table is I don’t want someone calling the clock on me while I think out the hand.

Then, I look at the player and tell him straight up, “I flopped a flush. I don’t think you have a flush or you would not drive out the action. Why would you raise me with a flush? Besides, the odds of two players flopping a flush are so remote, you are going to have a tough time selling me that you have a flush too. But you just committed over a third of your stack on this hand.”

He is quiet.

I continue, “Do you have a set? I can beat a set. But you have two draws at pairing the board for a full house. That means you are a 28% favorite to hit it on the turn and 22% or so on the river.”

No response.

“You don’t have a set. I think you have a big pocket pair. Queens? If you have the queen of clubs, you are about 28% to win the hand on the turn and 14% on the river. If you don’t have the club, you have to hit runner-runner for a boat.”

Nothing.

“I cannot call. I either need to fold or come over the top and put you all-in. It is only about 25% of my stack to put you all-in.”

Still nothing.

“I think I have you crushed right now. You are way behind and I am getting two-to-one on my money as a three-to-one favorite to win the hand.”

Absolutely nothing.

I ask myself if my 6-high flush is a $350 hand. My hand is the best it will ever be right now. It can only get worse on fourth and fifth streets.

He potentially has 14 outs to my no outs.

If I just call and another club comes on the turn, what then? Does he it a better flush and I flush away $100?

If I just call and the board pairs on the turn, then he has 10 outs to my no outs to hit a full house and I hit the poor house.

“If I fold, will you show?”

He says “sure”.

I tell him I don’t want him sucking out.

I show him the flush, and he shows me two red queens.

I apologize to the table again for taking so much time and I congratulate the player on outplaying me.

He says, “I did not outplay you. Your read was spot-on and I just could not lay down queens.”

I agonized over that hand for hours. I still don’t know if I made the right decision or not.

When the runner-runner suckout happened a few hands later with the same flop scenario, Mr. Queens and I just looked at each other and smiled.

I have been running incredibly well lately. Why? I have been representing and selling hands that I don’t have and betting accordingly.

Here is an example. I get dealt pocket queens on the button. My chip stack is $1000 deep.

I bet out $50 pre-flop and get one caller.

I am heads up with a tired player that is also sitting on about $1000.

I have not done well with pocket queens lately, but on this day, it felt like my ladies would hold up.

The flop is 9d-6d-2s.

My opponent bets out $75. I make it $175 to go.

He calls.

While I am worried about him being on a diamond draw, I am trying to represent a diamond draw myself.

Turn card is 3s.

He checks. I bet $300.

He reluctantly calls.

The river card is Jc.

My opponent checks.

I push the rest of my chips into the pot as if I missed my draw.

After two or three minutes of thinking about it, my opponent calls of the rest of his chips.

I show the Q-Q and he mucks.

He clearly put me on a flush draw.

My read is he had a hand like A-K or A-9 and felt that ace high or the pair of nines were good.

That said, Q-Q is officially off my ban list.

I have been running bad lately. Real bad.

Card dead for a week. And it is getting expensive.

I know running bad is part of the game, but it is getting ridiculous to the point of deja vu.

The problem with playing low limit games is dealing with donkeys that call anything. They cannot do the math and seem to never know how far behind they are.

These donkeys think they have a flush draw on every rainbow flop.

These donkeys think they have a straight draw when they are three cards to a straight.

Every night for the past week, I have lost all my chips on Q-Q. Yesterday was no different.

After waiting three hours for a playable hand, I get dealt Q-Q under the gun. I get four callers.

With $100 in the pot and a rainbow flop of 9-6-3, I push all in for another $180.

The two biggest donkeys at the table call. I know at this point I am both ahead and behind.

Fourth street is a 5 and fifth street is a 7.

One donkey turns over 5-7 offsuit. He went runner runner for two pair.

The other donkey turns over 8-4 offsuit for a runner runner straight.

How can anyone call $20 preflop with these garbage hands in a $1-$2 game?

The bigger question is how can I get so unlucky when I am clearly the favorite all the way to the river?

Bad is bad.

I am at MGM Grand Detroit the other night. There was a guy with a deep stack of about $900 in seat 6.

I am in seat 9 listening to seat 7 and seat 10 talk about how you need to have quads or better to win at this table because of the sick one and two-outers this guy is hitting on the river.

Sure enough, for the next two hours, his chip stack doubles - all from one and two-outers on the river.

The first playable hand I get is pocket Queens. I flop quads and double up. I don’t see another playable hand for an hour, so I leave and head over to MotorCity Casino.

At MotorCity, I sit down to a table of familiar faces. The lady to my right is a solid player at a table of loose players.

She makes a comment about the only way you can win at this table is to have quads or better. And, as it turns out, the only hands she has won at this table were quads.

An hour into this session, this person hits quads. Again.

Two hours into the session, I have not had a single playable hand. As I am thinking about calling it a night, I get dealt pocket Queens.

The Quads lady is in the hand to my right and to my left is a notoriously loose player.

The flop comes A-2-2 with two spades. The lady is first to act and checks.

I immediately put her on 2-2, given her track record on this night. I ask her “why did you check?” before betting out $50.

Mr. Loose calls, and Ms. Quads calls.

The flop is a Queen. Ms. Quads bets $100. I ask her if she has quads already, then I call.

Mr. Loose folds.

The flop is the case Queen. Ms. Quads checks. I make a value bet of $50. Truth be told, I hoped she had A-A or 2-2. The Bad Beat Jackpot at MotorCity pays on Aces full of Jacks or better getting beat as long as both hole cards play. Quads over quads would have paid out about $40,000.

Instead of a bad beat, it was bad news: she asked me if she could see one card. “No, not tonight” was my reply.

“Should I call or fold?” she asks me.

“If you have pocket Aces or pocket deuces, then call. Otherwise, fold”, I reply.

She calls and shows a dry Ace.

Two playable  hands at two casinos in four hours happens to be quad Queens.

What are the odds?